Precious Metals Plunge as Oil Surges on Iran-Hormuz Crisis
1. MARKET OVERVIEW TABLE
| Commodity | Price | 24h Change | 7d Change | Spot/Exchange |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gold | $4,340/oz | -$1,200 (-21.7%) | -18.5% | Global Spot |
| Silver | $67/oz | -$54 (-44.6%) | -37.0% | Global Spot |
| Crude Oil (WTI) | $90.40/bbl | +$2.27 (+2.6%) | +38.2% | NYMEX |
| Crude Oil (Brent) | $101.21/bbl | +$1.31 (+1.3%) | +50.0% | ICE |
| Natural Gas | $3.08/MMBtu | -$0.02 (-0.6%) | +8.6% | NYMEX |
Vibe: Energy complex remains elevated on Middle East supply disruption fears; precious metals in freefall despite geopolitical tailwind as strong dollar and rate hike expectations dominate.
2. PRECIOUS METALS PERFORMANCE
🟢 Top Gainers
| Commodity | Price | Change | % | Exchange |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| None - All precious metals declined on the day | - | - | - | - |
🔴 Top Losers
| Commodity | Price | Change | % | Exchange |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Silver | $67.00/oz | -$54.43 | -44.8% | COMEX |
| Gold | $4,340.00/oz | -$1,263 | -22.5% | COMEX |
| Copper | $11,891.00/ton | -$13.25/kg | -1.18% | LME/MCX |
| Aluminum | $3,251.50/ton | -$1.25/kg | -0.38% | LME |
| Zinc | $3,040.00/ton | -$1.55/kg | -0.50% | LME |
| Nickel | $16,900.00/ton | Daily change not available | Flat | LME |
| Lead | $1,861.00/ton | Daily change not available | Flat | LME |
| Platinum | Data not available | - | - | NYMEX |
| Palladium | Data not available | - | - | NYMEX |
3. ENERGY COMMODITIES
🟢 Top Gainers
| Commodity | Price | Change | % | Exchange |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Crude Oil (WTI) | $90.40/bbl | +$2.27 | +2.6% | NYMEX |
| Crude Oil (Brent) | $101.21/bbl | +$1.31 | +1.3% | ICE |
| Natural Gas | ₹275.10/MMBtu (MCX) | +₹2.40 | +0.88% | MCX |
🔴 Top Losers
| Commodity | Price | Change | % | Exchange |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| None - All energy commodities posted gains | - | - | - | - |
4. KEY COMMODITIES DETAILED
Gold
- Price: $4,340 per ounce
- 24h Change: -$120+ (-2.7%)
- 7d Change: -18.5% (worst weekly decline since 2011)
- 30d Change: -21.9% from all-time high of $5,603.22 (set Jan 29, 2026)
- Trading Volume: Elevated amid margin call related selling
- Key Levels: Resistance at $4,500; Support forming below $4,300
- India: ₹1,37,042 per 10 grams on MCX (down ₹2,218 or 1.59%); 24K gold at ₹13,564 per gram
Silver
- Price: $67.00 per ounce (down from March peak of ~$107)
- 24h Change: -$54.43 (-44.8% from peak)
- 7d Change: -37.0% (down from ₹2,75,000 to ₹2,29,900/kg in India)
- 30d Change: -45.8% from peak near $121.43/oz to current levels
- Trading Volume: High amid forced liquidation
- Key Levels: Below $67/oz; major support near $60; next target below $55
- India: ₹2,16,241 per kg on MCX (down ₹8,926 or 3.96%); domestic ₹2,29,900/kg
Crude Oil (WTI)
- Price: $90.40 per barrel
- 24h Change: +$2.27 (+2.6%)
- 7d Change: +38.2%
- 30d Change: +42.5% YTD; 52-week range $54.98-$113.41
- Trading Volume: High on geopolitical volatility
- OPEC+ Stance: OPEC agreed to resume production increases adding 206,000 barrels/day, exceeding previous monthly increments of 137,000 barrels/day
- India: ₹8,645 per barrel on MCX (up ₹300 or 3.59%)
Crude Oil (Brent)
- Price: $101.21 per barrel
- 24h Change: +$1.31 (+1.3%)
- 7d Change: +50.0% YTD; stayed above $95 for two months
- 30d Change: Significant surge following Gulf production curtailments of 10+ mb/d
- Trading Volume: Elevated amid supply disruption fears
- Key Levels: Resistance at $105-112; Support at $95
5. 52-WEEK / ALL-TIME LEVELS
New Highs Today
- None reported - Energy commodities retreated from recent peaks despite gains
Near Highs
| Commodity | Price | 52W/ATH High | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| WTI Crude | $90.40/bbl | $113.41 | -$23.01 (-20.3%) |
| Brent Crude | $101.21/bbl | $112.00+ | -$10.79 (-9.6%) |
| Natural Gas | $3.08/MMBtu | $7.50 (Jan spike) | -$4.42 (-58.9%) |
| Gold | $4,340/oz | $5,603.22 (ATH Jan 29) | -$1,263 (-22.5%) |
| Silver | $67/oz | $121.43 (March peak) | -$54.43 (-44.8%) |
New Lows Today
- Silver: Hit new multi-week lows around $67/oz (down 37% from March peak)
- Gold: Retested lows below $4,400/oz (down 21.9% from all-time high)
6. WHAT DROVE THE MARKET - DETAILED BREAKDOWN
Geopolitical Events
The Iran conflict remains the dominant driver. Iran launched new attacks on US targets overnight even as former President Trump claimed negotiations were underway. Tehran dismissed the announcement as an attempt to influence financial markets rather than genuine diplomatic development. The Strait of Hormuz remains effectively closed, handling 0% of its typical 20% of global seaborne oil supplies. Iran offered partial opening to “neutral” vessels while simultaneously escalating verbal threats, creating extreme volatility.
OPEC+ Decisions
OPEC agreed to resume oil production increases next month, with key members led by Saudi Arabia and Russia adding 206,000 barrels a day. This exceeds monthly increments of just 137,000 barrels/day seen in Q4 2025 and comes amid turmoil roiling the Middle East. The decision reflects supply concerns but has been overshadowed by the physical shutdown of Hormuz transit.
US Dollar Strength
The US Dollar Index (DXY) is at 10-month highs following the Federal Reserve’s hawkish March 19 FOMC meeting, which projected only one rate cut in 2026. Strong dollar pressure is crushing precious metals, with gold down 21.9% from its all-time high and silver down 45.8% from its March peak. Rising bond yields hit 8-month peaks, further reducing appeal of zero-yield precious metals.
Economic Data
EIA forecasts Brent remains above $95/bbl for two months before potentially falling below $80 in Q3 2026 if transit resumes. The IEA released 400 mb from emergency reserves. US crude production expected to rise to 13.6 mb/d in 2026 from higher price incentives. Japan Core CPI forecast at 2.0% for March, eurozone CPI flash forecast at 2.3% for Friday—key inflation readings that could influence rate policy.
Supply Chain Issues
Saudi Aramco halted operations at its Ras Tanura refinery (550,000 bpd capacity) after a drone strike. At least three tankers off the Gulf coast were damaged, killing one seafarer. S&P Global Platts suspended bids and offers for Middle East refined products assessments transiting Hormuz. Physical supply chain disruptions are real and ongoing.
Weather Events
Mild February temperatures left US natural gas storage above normal, capping domestic prices despite LNG flow disruptions through Hormuz. Natural gas is consolidating near $3.09 after spiking to $7.50 in January following the conflict’s onset.
China Demand
China PMI data and PBoC communications are in focus this week. Strong China data would support industrial metals (copper, silver bid on industrial demand); weak data would create headwinds for silver and raise oil demand concerns. The dual nature of silver (safe-haven metal AND industrial input) creates uniquely painful dynamics.
India-Specific Factors
MCX crude oil surged 3.59% to ₹8,645/barrel. For India, which imports roughly 85% of crude oil requirements, sustained higher prices present macroeconomic challenges. Oil Marketing Companies face margin compression. Gold on MCX at ₹1,37,042 per 10 grams (down 1.59%); silver at ₹2,16,241 per kg (down 3.96%). Domestic gold prices range from ₹13,564 (Mumbai) to ₹13,919 (Chennai) per gram for 24K gold.
7. SPECIAL MENTIONS
EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report
- Brent settled at $94/bbl on March 9, up 50% YTD
- EIA forecasts Brent remains above $95/bbl for two months
- US crude production expected at 13.6 mb/d in 2026
- Natural gas: Henry Hub forecast averages ~$3.80/MMBtu in 2026 (13% below last month’s forecast)
- Mild February led to more natural gas in storage
CME Commitment of Traders (COT) Report
- No specific data available for March 24, 2026
- Sentiment-driven selling dominates despite structural supply deficit in silver
SPDR Gold Shares (GLD) ETF Flows
- Tourist-retail money exiting the space rapidly
- Gold still up 5% in 2026 reflecting massive January surge, but trend reversed
iShares Silver Trust (SLV) ETF Flows
- Silver recording third consecutive losing week and 14% decline in a single week
- Worst week since 1980s reported
US Energy Information Administration (EIA) Data
- IEA released 400 mb from emergency reserves
- Shipping disruptions in Hormuz account for roughly 20% of global LNG flows including Qatar exports
- US inventories at 0.3% deficit to five-year average
8. TECHNICAL LEVELS
Gold
- Support: $4,200-4,300 zone; next support near $4,000
- Resistance: $4,500 (solid resistance broken); $4,840 (LiteFinance pivot broken)
- Key Moving Averages: Trading below EMA50, reinforcing bearish trend
- Indicators: Negative divergence forming on RSI; overbought levels reached before decline
Silver
- Support: $60; next major support near $55
- Resistance: $70-75 zone; former support turned resistance
- Key Moving Averages: Trading below EMA50 with increasing negative pressure
- Indicators: Negative crossover on RSI; potential negative divergence strengthening
WTI Crude
- Support: $87-90 zone; previous breakout levels
- Resistance: $105-112 (previous major swing high near $77.65 in prior cycle)
- Key Moving Averages: Firmly holding above key moving averages
- Indicators: Strong bullish momentum; heavily inverted futures signaling anticipated quick resolution
Brent Crude
- Support: $95-98 zone
- Resistance: $105-112 range
- Key Moving Averages: Above key moving averages despite recent volatility
- Indicators: Range-bound between $95-105; consolidation expected
9. SUMMARY
March 24, 2026 delivered a classic commodity market bifurcation: energy prices surged on very real supply disruption fears from the Iran conflict and Strait of Hormuz closure, while precious metals collapsed despite the geopolitical tailwind that ordinarily supports them. The key dynamic is a powerfully hawkish Federal Reserve that strengthened the US Dollar to 10-month highs, crushing gold and silver despite wars and crises. Gold fell 21.9% from its all-time high of $5,603 (set January 29) to $4,340; silver’s collapse was even more violent, down 45.8% from its March peak near $121 to $67.
Crude oil remains historically elevated—WTI at $90.40 (up 38% in 30 days), Brent at $101.21 (up 50% YTD)—as physical supply chain disruptions mount: Saudi Aramco halted Ras Tanura refinery operations after a drone strike, at least three tankers were damaged, and the Strait of Hormuz remains effectively closed. OPEC’s decision to add 206,000 barrels/day of production has been overshadowed by the physical shutdown of Hormuz transit. Natural gas is consolidating near $3.09 after spiking to $7.50 in January.
Base metals showed mixed performance with copper, zinc, and aluminum posting modest declines on deteriorating global growth outlook. The broader commodity market message is clear: until the Strait of Hormuz reopens and crude retreats meaningfully, energy stays bid; until the Fed pivots dovish, metals stay pressured. For India, which imports 85% of its crude, sustained higher prices present macroeconomic challenges while margin-sensitive sectors face immediate pressure.
Details for information purposes only. Don’t treat this as financial advice.