Gold Stays Under Pressure as Oil Markets Swing on Hormuz Developments

1. MARKET OVERVIEW TABLE

2. PRECIOUS METALS PERFORMANCE

🟢 Top Gainers

🔴 Top Losers

3. ENERGY COMMODITIES

🟢 Top Gainers

🔴 Top Losers

4. KEY COMMODITIES DETAILED

Gold

• Price: $4,555.60 per troy ounce
• 24h Change: +$105.30 (+2.40%)
• 7d Change: -12.23% (down from ATH of $5,603.22 on January 29, 2026)
• 30d Change: -21.9% from all-time high
• Trading Volume: Elevated during recent sell-off
• Key Levels: Resistance at $4,938 (0.382 Fib), Support at $4,163 (0.786 Fib), Major base at $3,863
• 52-Week Range: $3,863 - $5,603

Silver

• Price: $73.26 per troy ounce
• 24h Change: +$1.96 (+2.76%)
• 7d Change: -27.40% (down from January high of $121.43)
• 30d Change: -45.8% from peak
• Trading Volume: High during recent volatility
• Key Levels: Resistance at $84.76 (0.5 Fib), Support at $63.79 (0.786 Fib)
• 52-Week Range: $48.10 - $121.43

Crude Oil (WTI)

• Price: $88.84 per barrel
• 24h Change: +$0.72 (+0.81%)
• 7d Change: +35.80%
• 30d Change: +42.5% year-to-date
• Trading Volume: Elevated on geopolitical news
• Key Levels: Resistance at $104.35 (0.236 Fib), Support at $94.91 (0.382 Fib), Strong support at $87.28 (0.5 Fib)
• OPEC+ Stance: OPEC+ production cuts being neutralized by non-OPEC production expansion from US, Brazil, Canada, Guyana, and Argentina

Crude Oil (Brent)

• Price: $98.02 per barrel
• 24h Change: -$6.48 (-6.20%)
• 7d Change: +38.36%
• 30d Change: +34.16% year-over-year
• Trading Volume: High on Hormuz Strait developments
• Key Levels: Resistance at $104+, Support at $94.91 (0.382 Fib), Strong support at $87.28
• 52-Week Range: Market elevated above $95 for two months per EIA

5. 52-WEEK / ALL-TIME LEVELS

New Highs Today

• None reported for March 25, 2026

Near Highs

New Lows Today

• None reported for March 25, 2026

6. WHAT DROVE THE MARKET - DETAILED BREAKDOWN

Geopolitical Events

• Strait of Hormuz Crisis: Iran offered partial opening of Strait of Hormuz to “neutral” vessels while simultaneously escalating verbal threats following US ultimatum. EIA described Hormuz supply disruption as the largest oil supply disruption in market history, with Gulf production curtailments of 10+ million barrels per day.
• Iran-US Tensions: Diplomatic developments from Tehran regarding Hormuz transit caused WTI to swing between $96.75 and $100.22 in Asian trading. Market participants weigh partial Hormuz opening against ongoing US military posturing.
• Ongoing Monitoring: Markets remain highly sensitive to any headlines related to Hormuz Strait, with potential for $5-10 moves in minutes on major announcements.

OPEC+ Decisions

• Production Cuts Neutralized: OPEC+ implemented production cuts to stabilize prices, but these have been effectively neutralized by aggressive output expansion from the “Americas Quintet” (US, Brazil, Canada, Guyana, Argentina).
• February ORB: OPEC Reference Basket increased by $5.59/barrel month-on-month to average $67.90/barrel in February.
• Diminishing Efficacy: World Bank notes “diminishing efficacy” of OPEC+ as member states face difficult choice between losing market share to Americas or accepting lower prices.
• Surplus Capacity: OPEC+ now holds approximately 7 million barrels per day of spare capacity.

US Dollar Strength

• Fed Hawkish Stance: Federal Reserve’s March 19 FOMC projected only one rate cut in 2026, dramatically strengthening US dollar. DXY reached 10-month high, applying significant pressure to commodity prices denominated in USD.
• Bond Yields: US bond yields hit 8-month peaks, further supporting dollar strength.
• Impact on Metals: Strong dollar has effectively cancelled out safe-haven demand that Iran-US conflict should have generated for precious metals.

Economic Data

• World Bank Forecast: March 2026 Commodity Markets Outlook projects 7% decline in global commodity prices through 2026, marking fourth consecutive year of downward movement. Report describes “Great Oil Glut” with projected global oil surplus of 1.2 million barrels per day.
• Japan CPI: Forecast at 2.0% - key DXY driver this week.
• US Jobless Claims: Forecast at 205K vs 216K previous - key dollar indicator to watch.
• Eurozone CPI Flash: Forecast at 2.3% / 2.5% HICP for Friday release.

Supply Chain Issues

• Hormuz Disruption: Petroleum shipments through Strait of Hormuz fell sharply, creating 10+ million barrels per day supply curtailment. EIA forecasts Brent remains above $95/barrel for approximately two months before potentially falling below $80 in Q3 2026 if transit resumes.
• Emergency Reserves: IEA released 400 million barrels from emergency reserves to mitigate supply shock.
• US Production: Expected to rise to 13.6 mb/d in 2026 from higher price incentives.

Weather Events

• February Temperatures: Mild February in US left natural gas storage above seasonal norms, capping domestic Henry Hub price despite conflict’s disruption to LNG flows.
• January Gas Spike: Natural gas spiked to $7.50 in late January due to brief cold weather snap in North America combined with Hormuz disruption to LNG flows.

China Demand

• Economic Shift: China’s oil demand has plateaued as its economy shifts away from heavy industry toward high-tech manufacturing and services.
• EV Impact: World Bank estimates EV market penetration will reach levels replacing roughly 2 million barrels of oil demand per day compared to 2023 by end of 2026.
• Industrial Metals: Silver’s industrial demand component under pressure from global growth fears; China PMI data remains key indicator to watch.

India-Specific Factors

• MCX Gold Prices: Gained nearly 4%, trading above Rs 1.44 lakh per 10 grams.
• Import Impact: As a major energy importer, India expected to see significant improvements in trade balance and reduction in fiscal pressure from lower commodity prices.
• Festive Season: Approaching period where gold demand typically increases for wedding and festival seasons.

7. SPECIAL MENTIONS

EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report

• Supply Assessment: Confirmed largest oil supply disruption in market history from Hormuz Strait blockage.
• Inventory Outlook: Elevated US storage levels capping natural gas price despite external supply disruptions.
• Production Forecast: US crude production expected to rise to 13.6 mb/d in 2026 from higher price incentives.

CME Commitment of Traders (COT) Report

• Gold Positioning: Reports indicate “tourist money” - retail and systematic hedge fund positioning that piled into gold during January surge - is now unwinding.
• Silver Liquidation: Evidence of forced liquidation or systematic de-risking by large funds with accelerating selling momentum.

SPDR Gold Shares (GLD) ETF Flows

• Outflows: Recent outflows observed as retail investors exit gold positions following Fed hawkish signal.
• Institutional Demand: Central bank demand estimated at 585 tonnes per quarter remains bedrock support (J.P. Morgan data).

iShares Silver Trust (SLV) ETF Flows

• Structural Support: Silver enters fifth consecutive year of supply deficit, yet sentiment-driven selling dominates.
• Long-Term Thesis: Major-bank consensus target of $56-65 for 2026 points to $60-65 zone as potentially significant long-term accumulation area.

US Energy Information Administration (EIA) Data

• 2026 Forecast: Henry Hub spot price expected to average approximately $3.80/MMBtu in 2026.
• LNG Divergence: US natural gas prices expected to be relatively unaffected by Hormuz LNG flows; Europe and Asia prices increased on supply fears.

8. TECHNICAL LEVELS

Gold

• Support: $4,163 (0.786 Fib), $3,863 (Major structural base)
• Resistance: $4,528 (0.618 Fib), $4,938 (0.382 Fib), $5,192 (0.236 Fib)
• Key Moving Averages: Price decisively below all three MAs (short, medium, long)
• RSI: Approximately 27 (approaching oversold - watch for bounce)

Silver

• Support: $63.79 (0.786 Fib), $48.10 (Structural base)
• Resistance: $76.11 (0.618 Fib), $84.76 (0.5 Fib), $93.42 (0.382 Fib)
• Key Moving Averages: Far below all MAs - strong downtrend
• RSI: Approximately 32 (approaching deeply oversold)
• Pattern: Falling knife - no bottom confirmed yet

WTI Crude

• Support: $94.91 (0.382 Fib), $87.28 (0.5 Fib), $79.65 (0.618 Fib), $68.78 (0.786 Fib - V-bottom zone tested)
• Resistance: $104.35 (0.236 Fib), $119.61 (52-week high/ATH zone)
• Key Moving Averages: Price trading decisively above all three MAs
• RSI: Approximately 76 (overbought)
• Pattern: Strong uptrend with extreme volatility candles

Brent Crude

• Support: $94.91 area, $87.28 (0.5 Fib equivalent), $80 area (potential Q3 target if Hormuz resumes)
• Resistance: $104+ zone, $113.41 (52-week high)
• Key Moving Averages: Recently broke below shorter MAs on 6.2% decline
• 52-Week Range: Market has traded above $95 for two months

9. SUMMARY

Commodity markets on March 25, 2026 presented a bifurcated landscape shaped by two powerful opposing forces: a severe geopolitical supply shock through the Strait of Hormuz that has propelled energy prices to historically elevated levels, and a hawkish Federal Reserve that has strengthened the US dollar to multi-month highs, simultaneously suppressing precious metals.

Gold remained under significant pressure, trading around $4,555 per troy ounce, down 21.9% from its all-time high of $5,603 set on January 29, 2026. The precious metal failed to benefit from safe-haven demand typically associated with geopolitical conflict, as the Fed’s projection of only one rate cut in 2026 dramatically strengthened the dollar, which has a mechanical depressing effect on dollar-denominated gold. Silver showed slightly more resilience, gaining 2.76% to $73.26 per ounce, but remains down 45.8% from its January peak above $121, with industrial demand pressures compounding dollar strength effects.

Energy markets told a different story. WTI crude oil held at $88.84 per barrel, up 0.81% on the day and 42.5% year-to-date, supported by the EIA-confirmed largest oil supply disruption in market history through the Hormuz Strait. Brent crude, however, declined 6.20% to $98.02 on partial Hormuz diplomatic opening hopes, though it remains up 38.36% over the past month. Natural gas consolidated around $3.10 per MMBtu after its dramatic January spike to $7.50, with mild US winter weather leaving storage above normal.

Looking ahead, the World Bank’s March 2026 Commodity Markets Outlook projects a 7% decline in global commodity prices through 2026, describing a “Great Oil Glut” with projected global oil surplus of 1.2 million barrels per day. This structural surplus, driven by aggressive production expansion from non-OPEC nations and cooling demand from China’s economic transition to EVs and services, threatens to reshape the commodity landscape for the remainder of the decade. For traders, the immediate focus remains on hourly Hormuz Strait developments, Thursday’s US jobless claims data, and Friday’s Eurozone CPI flash release as key catalysts that could drive direction across all commodity complex.

Details for information purposes only. Don’t treat this as financial advice.