DAILY COMMODITY MARKET BRIEFING — March 30, 2026
1. MARKET OVERVIEW TABLE
| Commodity | Price | 24h Change | 7d Change | Spot Price | Notes |
|---|
| Gold | $4,530.42/t.oz | +0.79% | ~Flat | $4,530.42 | MCX: ₹1,45,700/10g (+0.98%) |
| Silver | ~$69.00/t.oz | -1.8% | Down ~5% | $69.00 | MCX: ₹2,26,482/kg (-0.65%) |
| Crude Oil (WTI) | $101.68/barrel | +2.1% | +40%+ | $101.68 | MCX: ₹9,568/bbl (+1.84%) |
| Crude Oil (Brent) | $115.41/barrel | +2.52% | +48%+ | $115.41 | Highest since mid-2022 |
| Natural Gas | $2.93/MMBtu | -1.0% | Down ~8% | $2.93 | MCX: ₹278.5/MMBtu (-3.87%) |
Vibe: Markets sharply divided — energy commodities surge on geopolitical supply disruption while precious metals contend with hawkish Fed headwinds despite ongoing Middle East conflict.
🟢 Top Gainers
| Commodity | Price | Change | % | Exchange | Notes |
|---|
| Gold | $4,530.42/t.oz | +$35.60 | +0.79% | Spot/CFD | ATH $5,627 (Jan 2026) |
| MCX Gold | ₹1,45,700/10g | +₹1,418 | +0.98% | MCX | Rupee weakness amplifies gains |
| Zinc | ₹317.45/kg | +₹2.10 | +0.67% | MCX | Base metals showing strength |
🔴 Top Losers
| Commodity | Price | Change | % | Exchange | Notes |
|---|
| Silver | $69.00/t.oz | -$1.27 | -1.80% | Spot/CFD | Down 44% from Feb ATH |
| MCX Silver | ₹2,26,482/kg | -₹1,472 | -0.65% | MCX | Industrial demand headwinds |
| Copper | ₹1,148.20/kg | -₹2.20 | -0.19% | MCX | China PMI weighing |
Notable: Palladium and platinum prices were not directly available in today’s data fetch but are typically tracking lower alongside silver on rate hike concerns.
3. ENERGY COMMODITIES
🟢 Top Gainers
| Commodity | Price | Change | % | Exchange | Notes |
|---|
| MCX Crude Oil | ₹9,568/bbl | +₹173 | +1.84% | MCX | Hormuz war premium embedded |
| WTI Crude | $101.68/bbl | +$2.09 | +2.10% | NYMEX | Highest since July 2022 |
| Brent Crude | $115.41/bbl | +$2.84 | +2.52% | ICE | +48% over past month |
| MCX Aluminium | ₹347.85/kg | +₹8.20 | +2.41% | MCX | Iran strikes on Gulf facilities |
🔴 Top Losers
| Commodity | Price | Change | % | Exchange | Notes |
|---|
| MCX Natural Gas | ₹278.5/MMBtu | -₹11.2 | -3.87% | MCX | US market insulated from global LNG crisis |
| US Natural Gas | $2.93/MMBtu | -$0.10 | -3.30% | NYMEX | Milder temperatures, above-normal storage |
Notable: Heating Oil and Gasoline futures were not directly available in today’s data fetch but are typically tracking crude movements higher.
4. KEY COMMODITIES DETAILED
Gold
| Metric | Value |
|---|
| Price | $4,530.42 per troy ounce |
| 24h Change | +$35.60 (+0.79%) |
| 7d Change | Approximately flat |
| 30d Change | -14.88% (correcting from ATH) |
| Trading Volume | Elevated as range-bound trade develops |
| Key Levels | Support: $4,238 (Fib 0.5); Resistance: $4,738 (Fib 0.764) |
| Context | Gold has corrected 21% from its January ATH of $5,627 as hawkish Fed headwinds outweigh safe-haven demand from Iran conflict |
Silver
| Metric | Value |
|---|
| Price | ~$69.00 per troy ounce |
| 24h Change | -$1.27 (-1.80%) |
| 7d Change | Down ~5% |
| 30d Change | Down significantly, approaching -30% from peak |
| Trading Volume | Increasing as oversold conditions develop |
| Key Levels | Support: $64.07 (Fib 0.786); Resistance: $76.61 (Fib 0.618) |
| Context | Silver is down 44% from its February 2026 all-time high of $122.74 — the steepest correction on record, reflecting dual hit from rate fears and industrial demand uncertainty |
Crude Oil (WTI)
| Metric | Value |
|---|
| Price | $101.68 per barrel |
| 24h Change | +$2.09 (+2.10%) |
| 7d Change | +40%+ |
| 30d Change | +40%+ |
| Trading Volume | Very high on geopolitical uncertainty |
| OPEC+ Stance | Production unchanged; Iran conflict driving $14–18/bbl war premium in global crude |
| Key Levels | Support: $94.75 (Fib 0.382); Resistance: $104.15 (Hormuz war range top) |
| Context | WTI broke above $100 for first time since July 2022 as Strait of Hormuz closure enters fifth week with no resolution timeline |
Crude Oil (Brent)
| Metric | Value |
|---|
| Price | $115.41 per barrel |
| 24h Change | +$2.84 (+2.52%) |
| 7d Change | +48%+ |
| 30d Change | +48%+ |
| Trading Volume | Elevated |
| Key Levels | Resistance at $116–118 range; ATH $147.50 (July 2008) |
| Context | Brent has surged 48.45% over the past month and 54.35% compared to same time last year, reflecting sustained supply disruption |
Natural Gas
| Metric | Value |
|---|
| Price | $2.93 per MMBtu (US Henry Hub) |
| 24h Change | -$0.10 (-3.30%) |
| 7d Change | Down ~8% |
| 30d Change | Range-bound 2.76–3.88 zone |
| Trading Volume | Moderate |
| Key Levels | Support: $2.764 (range floor, 6+ weeks); Resistance: $3.881 (Fib 0.236) |
| Context | US natural gas remains insulated from global LNG crisis; EIA forecast of $3.80 suggests 26% upside from current levels |
5. 52-WEEK / ALL-TIME LEVELS
New Highs Today
- Brent Crude: Crossed $115, approaching multi-week highs not seen since mid-2022
- WTI Crude: Broke above $101, highest level since July 2022
Near Highs
| Commodity | Price | 52W/ATH High | Gap |
|---|
| Gold | $4,530.42 | $5,627 (ATH Jan 2026) | -$1,096.58 (-19.5%) |
| Silver | $69.00 | $122.74 (ATH Feb 2026) | -$53.74 (-43.8%) |
| Brent Crude | $115.41 | $147.50 (ATH July 2008) | -$32.09 (-21.7%) |
| WTI Crude | $101.68 | ~$130+ (52W high context) | Gap narrowing |
New Lows Today
- None reported in today’s data fetch
6. WHAT DROVE THE MARKET — DETAILED BREAKDOWN
Geopolitical Events
- Iran-US Conflict Enters Fifth Week: The Strait of Hormuz has been effectively closed to commercial shipping since March 2, disrupting approximately 17.8 million barrels per day of global oil flow. Iran has deployed a yuan-based toll system for allied vessels, and the US administration has set an April 6 deadline for Iran to reopen the waterway.
- Iranian Strikes Hit Gulf Aluminium Facilities: Iranian strikes over the weekend hit two of the Middle East’s most significant aluminium production sites — Emirates Global Aluminium (Abu Dhabi) and Aluminium Bahrain (Alba). The Middle East accounts for approximately 9 percent of global aluminium supply.
- Houthi Escalation: Yemen-based militants joined the conflict over the weekend, targeting Israel and stating capacity to target Red Sea shipping and Saudi Arabian energy infrastructure.
OPEC+ Decisions
- Production Status: OPEC+ has maintained current production quotas; no immediate adjustments reported.
- War Premium: Goldman Sachs estimates a $14–18/bbl war premium is currently embedded in Brent crude prices due to Hormuz disruption.
- IEA Strategic Reserves: IEA Member countries released 400 million barrels of emergency reserves on March 11, providing only temporary relief.
US Dollar Strength
- Fed Hawkish Hold: The Federal Reserve held rates at 3.50%–3.75% at the March 17–18 FOMC meeting — its second consecutive hold. The CME FedWatch tool now prices zero rate cuts for 2026, with probability of a rate hike by year-end at 35%.
- Real Yields Rising: Higher real Treasury yields have increased the opportunity cost of holding gold and silver — the fundamental reason both metals have corrected severely from January–February highs despite active geopolitical crisis.
- Dollar Index: Stronger USD is mechanically suppressing dollar-denominated commodity prices, particularly precious metals.
Economic Data
- February NFP: March Non-Farm Payrolls data is due Friday, April 3. February showed a loss of 92,000 jobs — the steepest decline in four months, with health care, federal government, manufacturing, and transportation all contracting.
- PMI Data: US ISM Manufacturing PMI (prelim) and Caixin Manufacturing PMI from China due Monday will provide demand signals for oil and base metals.
Supply Chain Issues
- Aluminium Production Disruption: Aluminium Bahrain had already shut down 19 percent of its 1.6 million tonne per year capacity earlier this month due to shipping disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz. Iranian strikes compound this operational crisis.
- Guinea Bauxite Quotas: Guinea is actively considering introducing bauxite export quotas, which would tighten raw material availability for global aluminium smelters at the same time that Gulf production facilities assess strike damage.
Weather Events
- US Natural Gas: Updated weather forecasts show slightly cooler but still above-seasonal-average temperatures through the end of March, limiting heating demand.
- No Major Weather Disruptions: No major hurricane or severe weather events reported affecting commodity production or transport.
China Demand
- Manufacturing PMI: Monday’s Caixin Manufacturing PMI (forecast: 50.8 vs. prior 50.6) is a critical demand signal for oil and base metals. China accounts for roughly 50 percent of global copper demand and approximately 15 percent of crude oil demand.
- Economic Slowdown Concerns: Weakening global PMI data is reducing industrial demand expectations for silver, copper, and other base metals.
India-Specific Factors
- MCX Trends: MCX Gold is up 0.98 percent to ₹1,45,700, while MCX Silver is down 0.65 percent to ₹2,26,482. The rupee’s continued weakness is amplifying dollar-denominated price moves in local terms.
- OMC Losses: Brent crude at $115.49 means the Indian Crude Basket remains at levels that make OMC (Oil Marketing Companies) losses of approximately ₹49 per litre structurally unavoidable at current frozen retail fuel prices.
- Import Duties: No immediate changes reported in India’s gold import duties or other commodity-related taxes.
7. SPECIAL MENTIONS (key events, inventory data, ETF flows, unusual moves)
EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report
- Scheduled: Wednesday, April 1, 2026, 14:30 UTC
- Forecast: EIA crude inventories expected to show a draw of −1.2M barrels vs. prior week’s build of +3.4M bbl
- Significance: This is the week’s most tradeable crude catalyst outside of geopolitical binary outcomes
CME Commitment of Traders (COT) Report
- Not Available: Latest COT report was not directly accessible in today’s data fetch; typically released weekly on Fridays
SPDR Gold Shares (GLD) ETF Flows
- Not Available: Latest GLD flows were not directly accessible in today’s data fetch; central bank buying, which had previously supported gold’s rally, is reported to be reversing as major economies boost liquidity to counter the economic impact of the Iran war
iShares Silver Trust (SLV) ETF Flows
- Not Available: Latest SLV flows were not directly accessible in today’s data fetch; silver is experiencing sustained liquidity outflow per technical indicators
- Natural Gas Storage: The EIA reported a larger-than-average storage withdrawal last week, but analysts widely expect it to be the final significant draw of the winter season as warmer weather takes hold
- 2026 Forecast: EIA’s 2026 forecast for natural gas is $3.80/MMBtu, 26% above current Henry Hub levels of $3.025, suggesting structural upside potential
Unusual Moves
- Aluminium Surge: MCX aluminium up 2.41 percent to ₹347.85/kg as Iranian strikes on Gulf facilities introduce new supply shock risk that markets had not priced in
- Trans-Atlantic Gas Divergence: European TTF futures have surged 34% since March 1 on LNG supply route concerns, while US Henry Hub remains insulated, creating widening price spread
- Gold Paradox: Gold is falling during a geopolitical crisis — atypical behavior explained by rate hike expectations overwhelming safe-haven demand
8. TECHNICAL LEVELS
Gold
| Level Type | Price | Notes |
|---|
| Support 1 | $4,490 | Fib 0.618 zone — defended on three consecutive daily closes |
| Support 2 | $4,238 | Fib 0.5 — if 0.618 breaks |
| Support 3 | $3,986 | Fib 0.382 — deep support |
| Resistance 1 | $4,738 | Fib 0.764 — first overhead |
| Resistance 2 | $5,627 | All-Time High (January 2026) |
| 50-Day MA | Below current price | Violated in correction |
| 200-Day MA | Below current price | Violated in correction |
Silver
| Level Type | Price | Notes |
|---|
| Support 1 | $67.00 | Near-term support zone |
| Support 2 | $64.07 | Fib 0.786 — final structural defence |
| Support 3 | $48–50 | Multi-year support if $64 fails |
| Resistance 1 | $73.66 | Prior breakout zone — now resistance |
| Resistance 2 | $76.61 | Fib 0.618 — close above = trend reversal |
| Resistance 3 | $88.00 | Consensus medium-term range top |
| 50-Day MA | Above current price | Violated in correction |
WTI Crude
| Level Type | Price | Notes |
|---|
| Support 1 | $94.75 | Fib 0.382 — range floor, key support |
| Support 2 | $91.50 | Below Fib 0.382 invalidation |
| Support 3 | $85–88 | Ceasefire scenario support |
| Resistance 1 | $104.15 | Hormuz war range top |
| Resistance 2 | $115–120 | Escalation scenario, pre-IEA highs |
| 50-Day MA | Below current price | Bullish momentum |
Brent Crude
| Level Type | Price | Notes |
|---|
| Support 1 | ~$110 | Near-term support |
| Support 2 | $94–100 | Ceasefire scenario revaluation zone |
| Resistance 1 | $116–118 | Current trading range top |
| Resistance 2 | $130+ | 52-week high context |
| Resistance 3 | $147.50 | All-Time High (July 2008) |
9. SUMMARY
Commodity markets on Monday, March 30, 2026, presented a sharply divided picture as the West Asia conflict enters its fifth week with no resolution in sight. Energy commodities surged — WTI crude broke above $101 to reach its highest level since July 2022, while Brent crude crossed $115, reflecting a $14–18 per barrel war premium embedded in global oil prices due to the ongoing Strait of Hormuz closure. MCX crude oil gained 1.84 percent to ₹9,568 per barrel, tracking global moves. The week ahead carries critical binary risk with a US deadline of April 6 for Iran to reopen the waterway.
Precious metals faced opposing forces. Gold managed a 0.79 percent gain to $4,530.42 per ounce (MCX up 0.98 percent to ₹1,45,700), but the metal remains 21 percent below its January all-time high of $5,627. The gold market is navigating a specific contradiction: the Iran conflict provides safe-haven demand, but the same conflict has driven oil prices higher, which feeds inflation expectations and reinforces rate hike fears from the Federal Reserve. The Fed’s hawkish hold at 3.50%–3.75%, with zero rate cuts now priced for 2026, has increased real Treasury yields and strengthened the dollar — both factors that suppress gold prices.
Silver fared worse, declining 1.8 percent to approximately $69 per ounce (MCX down 0.65 percent to ₹2,26,482 per kilogram). Silver is down 44 percent from its February all-time high of $122.74, reflecting its greater sensitivity to both rate hike expectations and industrial demand uncertainty. The metal’s dual nature as both a precious metal and an industrial commodity works against it in the current environment.
A new dimension emerged in the industrial metals complex as Iranian strikes hit Gulf aluminium production facilities. MCX aluminium surged 2.41 percent to ₹347.85 per kilogram. The Middle East accounts for approximately 9 percent of global aluminium supply, and simultaneous strikes on Emirates Global Aluminium and Aluminium Bahrain introduce supply shock risk that markets had not been pricing in. Zinc also posted modest gains.
Natural gas was the biggest percentage loser among major commodities, with MCX natural gas down 3.87 percent to ₹278.5 per MMBtu and US Henry Hub natural gas falling to $2.93 per MMBtu. The decline reflects the US market’s unusual insulation from the global LNG price crisis — the United States produces all the gas it consumes domestically, and LNG export terminals are already running at full capacity, preventing additional exports even as global prices surge.
The week ahead features three high-impact catalysts that will define commodity trading: Federal Reserve Chair Powell’s speech on Monday, the EIA crude inventory report on Wednesday, and the March Non-Farm Payrolls data on Friday. These events overlap with the unresolved Iran conflict and the April 6 Hormuz deadline, creating a volatility environment where normal position sizes carry exceptional tail risk.
Details for information purposes only. Don’t treat this as financial advice.