DAILY COMMODITY MARKET BRIEFING — March 31, 2026
1. MARKET OVERVIEW TABLE
| Commodity | Price | 24h Change | 7d Change | Spot Price | Notes |
|---|
| Gold | $4,577.18/t.oz | +1.46% | +1.03% | $4,577.18 | Strongest gain in a week |
| Silver | $73.15/t.oz | +4.49% | ~Flat | $73.15 | Major rebound from recent lows |
| Crude Oil (WTI) | $103.48/barrel | +0.58% | +41%+ | $103.48 | Holds above $100 mark |
| Crude Oil (Brent) | $114.79/barrel | +0.35% | +48%+ | $114.79 | Nears $115 resistance |
| Natural Gas | $2.83/MMBtu | -1.91% | Down ~8% | $2.83 | Continues seasonal decline |
Vibe: Precious metals stage strong recovery rally led by silver’s 4.5% surge, while energy commodities maintain elevated levels on sustained Middle East supply disruption concerns.
🟢 Top Gainers
| Commodity | Price | Change | % | Exchange | Notes |
|---|
| Silver | $73.15/t.oz | +$3.14 | +4.49% | Spot/CFD | Largest daily gain in weeks |
| Gold | $4,577.18/t.oz | +$65.91 | +1.46% | Spot/CFD | Breaks above $4,550 resistance |
| Palladium | $1,474.00/t.oz | +$41.50 | +2.90% | Spot/CFD | Follows metals rally |
| Platinum | $1,943.50/t.oz | +$34.00 | +1.78% | Spot/CFD | Steady gains |
🔴 Top Losers
| Commodity | Price | Change | % | Exchange | Notes |
|---|
| None Reported | - | - | - | - | All precious metals posted gains |
Notable: Silver’s 4.49% surge represents its strongest daily performance in recent weeks, reversing part of the steep correction from February’s all-time high. Gold also posted robust gains of 1.46%, breaking back above the $4,550 resistance level.
3. ENERGY COMMODITIES
🟢 Top Gainers
| Commodity | Price | Change | % | Exchange | Notes |
|---|
| WTI Crude | $103.48/bbl | +$0.60 | +0.58% | NYMEX | Maintains above $100 support |
| Brent Crude | $114.79/bbl | +$0.40 | +0.35% | ICE | Holds near $115 level |
| Coal | $119.45/ton | -$2.55 | -2.09% | Global | Minor decline from recent highs |
🔴 Top Losers
| Commodity | Price | Change | % | Exchange | Notes |
|---|
| Natural Gas | $2.83/MMBtu | -$0.06 | -1.91% | Henry Hub | Seasonal weakness persists |
| Heating Oil | $114.91/100L | -$0.26 | -0.23% | NYMEX | Mild profit-taking |
| RBOB Gasoline | $3.34/gal | -$0.01 | -0.27% | NYMEX | Consolidates near recent highs |
Notable: Both WTI and Brent crude maintained their elevated positions above $100 and $115 respectively, reflecting the ongoing impact of Middle East supply disruptions despite the modest daily gains.
4. KEY COMMODITIES DETAILED
Gold
| Metric | Value |
|---|
| Price | $4,577.18 per troy ounce |
| 24h Change | +$65.91 (+1.46%) |
| 7d Change | +1.03% |
| 30d Change | -13.70% (correcting from ATH) |
| Trading Volume | Elevated on breakout above $4,550 |
| Key Levels | Support: $4,490; Resistance: $4,650, ATH: $5,627 (Jan 2026) |
| Context | Gold posts its strongest daily gain in a week, breaking above $4,550 resistance as safe-haven demand resurfaces despite Fed hawkishness |
Silver
| Metric | Value |
|---|
| Price | $73.15 per troy ounce |
| 24h Change | +$3.14 (+4.49%) |
| 7d Change | Approximately flat |
| 30d Change | Down ~28% from peak |
| Trading Volume | High on rebound rally |
| Key Levels | Support: $69.00; Resistance: $76.61, ATH: $122.74 (Feb 2026) |
| Context | Silver delivers its strongest daily performance in weeks with a 4.49% surge, recouping some losses from the steep 44% correction from February’s record high |
Crude Oil (WTI)
| Metric | Value |
|---|
| Price | $103.48 per barrel |
| 24h Change | +$0.60 (+0.58%) |
| 7d Change | +41%+ |
| 30d Change | +41%+ |
| Trading Volume | High on geopolitical uncertainty |
| OPEC+ Stance | Production unchanged; Iran conflict continues to support war premium |
| Key Levels | Support: $100.00 psychological level; Resistance: $105.00-$108.00 |
| Context | WTI holds above the key $100 psychological level for the third consecutive day as Strait of Hormuz closure extends into fifth week |
Crude Oil (Brent)
| Metric | Value |
|---|
| Price | $114.79 per barrel |
| 24h Change | +$0.40 (+0.35%) |
| 7d Change | +48%+ |
| 30d Change | +48%+ |
| Trading Volume | Elevated |
| Key Levels | Resistance: $116.00-$118.00; ATH: $147.50 (July 2008) |
| Context | Brent remains near $115 with analysts citing $14-18 per barrel war premium due to ongoing Hormuz supply disruption |
Natural Gas
| Metric | Value |
|---|
| Price | $2.83 per MMBtu (US Henry Hub) |
| 24h Change | -$0.06 (-1.91%) |
| 7d Change | Down ~8% |
| 30d Change | Range-bound in 2.76-3.88 zone |
| Trading Volume | Moderate |
| Key Levels | Support: $2.764; Resistance: $3.00 |
| Context | US natural gas extends losses on seasonal weakness and above-normal storage levels, remaining insulated from global LNG price surge |
5. 52-WEEK / ALL-TIME LEVELS
New Highs Today
- None reported in today’s session
Near Highs
| Commodity | Price | 52W/ATH High | Gap |
|---|
| Gold | $4,577.18 | $5,627 (ATH Jan 2026) | -$1,049.82 (-18.7%) |
| Silver | $73.15 | $122.74 (ATH Feb 2026) | -$49.59 (-40.4%) |
| Brent Crude | $114.79 | $147.50 (ATH July 2008) | -$32.71 (-22.2%) |
| WTI Crude | $103.48 | ~$130+ (52W high context) | Gap narrowing |
| Tin | $46,846.50 | ~$50,000+ (52W context) | Near yearly highs |
| Aluminium | $3,401.00 | ~$3,500+ (52W context) | Near resistance |
New Lows Today
- None reported in today’s session
6. WHAT DROVE THE MARKET — DETAILED BREAKDOWN
Geopolitical Events
- Strait of Hormuz Closure Enters Fifth Week: The vital waterway remains closed to commercial shipping since March 2, blocking approximately 17.8 million barrels per day of global oil flow. Iran’s yuan-based toll system for allied vessels continues to operate.
- US Deadline Approaching: The US administration has set an April 6 deadline for Iran to reopen the waterway, creating binary market risk with five days remaining until the deadline.
- Iranian Drone Attack: Reports indicate an Iranian drone set a Kuwaiti oil tanker on fire, further escalating tensions in the Gulf region.
- India Reports Stranded Vessels: Indian officials report 28 oil and gas ships remain stranded near the Strait of Hormuz, compounding global supply disruptions.
OPEC+ Decisions
- Production Unchanged: OPEC+ has maintained current production quotas; no emergency meetings announced despite sustained supply disruption.
- War Premium Estimates: Analysts continue to cite a $14-18 per barrel war premium embedded in Brent crude prices.
- IEA Reserve Impact: The earlier 400 million barrel strategic reserve release provided only temporary relief, with markets now pricing in prolonged disruption.
US Dollar Strength
- Fed Policy Stance: The Federal Reserve’s hawkish stance at 3.50%-3.75% continues to support the dollar, but today’s precious metals rally suggests safe-haven demand is temporarily overriding dollar strength.
- Rate Cut Expectations: CME FedWatch tool prices zero rate cuts for 2026, with probability of a rate hike by year-end at approximately 35%.
- Dollar Impact: While the stronger dollar typically suppresses commodity prices, precious metals showed resilience today as geopolitical concerns dominated price action.
Economic Data
- Upcoming NFP: March Non-Farm Payrolls data is due Friday, April 3, with markets watching for labor market strength that could influence Fed policy.
- PMI Data: US ISM Manufacturing PMI (prelim) and China’s Caixin Manufacturing PMI scheduled for Monday are critical demand indicators for commodities.
Supply Chain Issues
- Aluminium Sector Disruption: Iranian strikes on Gulf aluminium production facilities (Emirates Global Aluminium and Aluminium Bahrain) continue to create supply uncertainty. The Middle East accounts for approximately 9% of global aluminium supply.
- Marine Shipping Impacts: Maersk and other major shipping lines have imposed emergency fuel surcharges as war-related disruptions upend marine supply chains.
Weather Events
- US Natural Gas: Weather forecasts show milder temperatures persisting into April, reducing heating demand and contributing to natural gas price weakness.
- No Major Disruptions: No significant weather events reported affecting major commodity production or transportation routes.
China Demand
- Manufacturing PMI Outlook: Monday’s Caixin Manufacturing PMI will be closely watched as China accounts for roughly 50% of global copper demand and approximately 15% of crude oil demand.
- Industrial Activity: Concerns about slowing Chinese industrial growth continue to weigh on base metals, though today’s rally in industrial metals suggests some resilience.
India-Specific Factors
- MCX Trends: No specific MCX data available in today’s fetch, but India is among countries most affected by the Gulf disruptions given its heavy reliance on Middle East crude imports.
- Strategic Response: India has leaned on coal and renewables as gas supply constraints from the war continue to throttle availability.
- Fuel Tax Adjustments: Indian authorities have implemented fuel tax cuts to cushion consumers from elevated crude prices.
7. SPECIAL MENTIONS (key events, inventory data, ETF flows, unusual moves)
EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report
- Scheduled: Wednesday, April 1, 2026, 14:30 UTC
- Forecast: Markets anticipate a draw in crude inventories following weeks of supply disruption
- Significance: Critical data point for gauging actual supply tightness versus speculative positioning
CME Commitment of Traders (COT) Report
- Not Available: Latest COT report data was not accessible in today’s fetch; typically released weekly on Fridays
SPDR Gold Shares (GLD) ETF Flows
- Not Available: Latest GLD flow data was not accessible in today’s fetch
iShares Silver Trust (SLV) ETF Flows
- Not Available: Latest SLV flow data was not accessible in today’s fetch
- Natural Gas Storage: Recent reports show storage levels above seasonal norms, contributing to price weakness
- 2026 Forecast: EIA’s 2026 forecast for natural gas remains at $3.80/MMBtu, suggesting potential upside from current levels
Unusual Moves
- Silver’s 4.49% Surge: The strong rebound in silver represents its best daily performance in weeks, potentially signaling oversold conditions and bargain hunting.
- Industrial Metals Rally: Tin, aluminium, and zinc all posted gains above 2.8%, with tin leading at 4.51%, suggesting some base metals demand resilience.
- Gold-Silver Spread: The narrowing gold-silver ratio on silver’s outperformance may indicate renewed investor interest in the more volatile precious metal.
8. TECHNICAL LEVELS
Gold
| Level Type | Price | Notes |
|---|
| Support 1 | $4,550 | Recent breakout level, now acting as support |
| Support 2 | $4,490 | Fib 0.618 zone — defended on multiple occasions |
| Support 3 | $4,238 | Fib 0.5 — deeper support level |
| Resistance 1 | $4,650 | Near-term resistance zone |
| Resistance 2 | $4,738 | Fib 0.764 — key overhead level |
| Resistance 3 | $5,627 | All-Time High (January 2026) |
| 50-Day MA | Below current price | Recovery rally developing |
Silver
| Level Type | Price | Notes |
|---|
| Support 1 | $69.00 | Recent low / breakout point |
| Support 2 | $64.07 | Fib 0.786 — critical structural support |
| Support 3 | $48-50 | Multi-year support zone |
| Resistance 1 | $73.66 | Prior breakout zone — now resistance |
| Resistance 2 | $76.61 | Fib 0.618 — trend reversal signal |
| Resistance 3 | $88.00 | Medium-term range top |
| 50-Day MA | Above current price | Bullish momentum today |
WTI Crude
| Level Type | Price | Notes |
|---|
| Support 1 | $100.00 | Psychological support — key level to watch |
| Support 2 | $94.75 | Fib 0.382 — technical support |
| Support 3 | $85-88 | Ceasefire scenario revaluation zone |
| Resistance 1 | $105.00 | Near-term resistance |
| Resistance 2 | $108.00 | Extension zone |
| Resistance 3 | $115-120 | Escalation scenario levels |
| 50-Day MA | Below current price | Bullish momentum |
Brent Crude
| Level Type | Price | Notes |
|---|
| Support 1 | $110.00 | Near-term support |
| Support 2 | $105.00 | Psychological level |
| Support 3 | $94-100 | Ceasefire scenario zone |
| Resistance 1 | $116.00 | Current range top |
| Resistance 2 | $118.00 | Extension target |
| Resistance 3 | $130+ | 52-week high context |
| Resistance 4 | $147.50 | All-Time High (July 2008) |
9. SUMMARY
Commodity markets on Tuesday, March 31, 2026, were characterized by a strong precious metals recovery rally led by silver’s 4.49% surge, while energy commodities maintained elevated levels on persistent Middle East supply concerns.
Silver delivered its strongest daily performance in weeks, jumping 4.49% to $73.15 per ounce, recouping some of the steep losses from the 44% correction that began after February’s all-time high of $122.74. Gold also posted solid gains of 1.46% to $4,577.18 per ounce, breaking above the key $4,550 resistance level. The rally in precious metals is notable given the Federal Reserve’s ongoing hawkish stance, suggesting that safe-haven demand related to the escalating Middle East conflict is temporarily overriding rate hike concerns.
Energy markets remained elevated with WTI crude at $103.48 per barrel and Brent crude at $114.79 per barrel. Both benchmarks maintained their positions above key psychological levels — $100 for WTI and $115 for Brent — as the Strait of Hormuz closure entered its fifth week with no resolution in sight. Markets are increasingly focused on the April 6 deadline set by the US administration for Iran to reopen the waterway. Analysts estimate a $14-18 per barrel war premium remains embedded in Brent prices due to the ongoing supply disruption.
Natural gas continued its seasonal decline, falling 1.91% to $2.83 per MMBtu. The US natural gas market remains insulated from the global LNG price crisis, with domestic production meeting consumption needs and storage levels above seasonal norms.
Industrial metals showed resilience with tin leading the gainers at 4.51% to $46,846.50 per tonne. Aluminium added 3.83% to $3,401.00 per tonne, while zinc gained 2.80% to $3,159.85 per tonne. Copper, lead, and nickel also posted modest gains. The strength in industrial metals suggests some underlying demand despite concerns about slowing Chinese industrial activity.
The week ahead carries significant event risk with Friday’s March Non-Farm Payrolls report, Wednesday’s EIA crude inventory data, and Monday’s manufacturing PMI readings from both the US and China. These economic indicators overlap with the unresolved Iran conflict and the approaching April 6 Hormuz deadline, creating a volatile trading environment.
Market participants continue to monitor developments in the Gulf region closely, with reports of stranded vessels and escalating drone attacks adding to supply uncertainty. The precious metals rally today may indicate investors are seeking safe havens as the geopolitical situation remains fluid with no clear path to resolution.
Details for information purposes only. Don’t treat this as financial advice.